The Shadow Trade: Illicit Firearms in the UK – Sources, Routes, and the NCA Response (2024-2026)

The illicit firearms landscape in the United Kingdom presents a complex and evolving challenge. While gun violence remains significantly lower than in many other developed nations, the increasing availability of illegal weapons poses a growing threat to public safety. This report delves into the sources and routes of these firearms, the types of weapons most commonly encountered, the organisations involved, and the significant efforts of the National Crime Agency (NCA) to disrupt the flow and mitigate the risks. It will also examine emerging threats linked to illegal migration and potential connections between criminal gangs, extremist groups, and the influx of illicit weapons. This analysis is based on publicly available data from the NCA, government reports, academic research, and open-source intelligence (OSINT) gathered through late 2024 and early 2026.

I. The Scale of the Problem & Types of Illicit Firearms

Quantifying the exact number of illegal firearms in circulation within the UK is inherently difficult, due to the clandestine nature of the trade. However, official seizures and intelligence assessments provide a valuable indication of the scale. While the total number of recovered firearms fluctuates year-on-year, the NCA consistently reports a concerning level of activity. In recent years, the number of recovered illegal firearms has remained relatively stable, suggesting a persistent, if not escalating, threat.

The types of weapons entering the UK illegally are diverse, but several categories predominate:

• Handguns: These remain the most commonly recovered type of firearm. A significant proportion are ex-military or converted blank-firing pistols, particularly Turkish-manufactured ‘Top Venting Blank Firers’ (TVBFs). These weapons, legally sold as realistic replicas, can be readily converted to fire live ammunition with minimal skill and tools – a fact highlighted by NCA’s ‘Operation Sergeancy’ (detailed later).
• Shotguns: Often stolen from legitimate owners, but also imported illegally, shotguns are favoured by criminals involved in intimidation, robbery, and some forms of drug trafficking.
• Rifles: Less common than handguns and shotguns, rifles generally enter the UK through sophisticated criminal networks, often linked to Eastern European organised crime groups. These can include converted semi-automatic rifles and, in rare cases, fully automatic weapons.
• ‘Conflict Legacy’ Weapons: Firearms originating from conflicts in the Balkans and other regions continue to find their way into the UK, often via established smuggling routes. These weapons are typically older but can still be lethal.
• Component Parts: Increasingly, law enforcement are encountering the import of firearm components – barrels, receivers, firing pins – which are then assembled into complete weapons within the UK. This trend complicates investigations and necessitates a focus on disrupting the supply of these parts.

II. Sources and Routes of Illicit Firearms

The sourcing and trafficking routes for illegal firearms in the UK are multi-faceted and constantly evolving. Key sources and routes include:

• Eastern Europe: Historically, the Balkan region has been a major source of illicit firearms, with weapons from conflicts in the former Yugoslavia, Albania, and other countries being trafficked across Europe. Organised crime groups, often with links to Russia and other Eastern European countries, are heavily involved in this trade. Firearms are smuggled via road, sea, and air, utilizing sophisticated concealment methods.
• Turkey: The primary source of the TVBFs, which pose a significant challenge to law enforcement, is Turkey. These weapons are legally manufactured and exported, but a substantial number are diverted into the illicit market.
• Spain & Portugal: These countries serve as entry points for firearms trafficked from South America and Africa, often concealed in cargo shipments.
• The Netherlands & Belgium: These serve as transit routes for firearms originating in Eastern Europe, destined for the UK.
• Internal Diversion: A significant proportion of illegal firearms originate from within the UK, through theft from licensed gun owners, security companies, or during transport.
• Illegal Migration & Small Boat Crossings: While not the primary route for large-scale firearms trafficking, there is growing concern about the potential for opportunistic smuggling of firearms alongside migrants crossing the English Channel in small boats. OSINT sources indicate anecdotal evidence of small arms components and, rarely, complete weapons, being discovered during border searches. The lack of effective screening and the sheer volume of crossings create vulnerabilities.

III. Organisations Involved in the Illicit Trade

Several types of organisations are involved in the illegal firearms trade in the UK:

• Organised Crime Groups (OCGs): These are the primary drivers of the illicit firearms market. They source weapons from abroad, smuggle them into the country, and distribute them to criminals involved in drug trafficking, robbery, extortion, and other serious offences. Eastern European OCGs, in particular, have established a strong presence in the UK firearms market.
• Criminal Gangs: Local gangs operating within cities and towns often purchase firearms from OCGs to use in turf wars, intimidation, and violence.
• Extremist Groups: While direct links between extremist groups and large-scale firearms trafficking are rare, there is concern that some groups may attempt to acquire weapons for ideological or terrorist purposes. Intelligence agencies are constantly monitoring potential connections.
• Corrupt Individuals: The involvement of corrupt officials – in border control, transportation, or within the firearms licensing system – can facilitate the illicit trade and hinder law enforcement efforts.

IV. The National Crime Agency’s (NCA) Response

The NCA plays a central role in tackling the illicit firearms threat in the UK. Its efforts are multi-faceted and include:

• Intelligence Gathering & Analysis: The NCA collects and analyses intelligence from a wide range of sources – law enforcement partners, intelligence agencies, open-source intelligence (OSINT), and international partners – to identify key criminal networks, trafficking routes, and emerging threats.
• Operation Sergeancy (TVBF Amnesty): Launched in February 2025, this operation targeted the proliferation of converted TVBFs. The NCA worked with police forces across England and Wales to offer an amnesty for the surrender of these weapons. The response was overwhelmingly positive, with nearly 3,000 weapons surrendered – one of the most successful amnesties of its kind. This initiative significantly reduced the number of TVBFs in circulation and demonstrated a collaborative approach between law enforcement, the public, and the firearms trade.
• Border Control Operations: The NCA works with Border Force and other agencies to strengthen border controls and disrupt the smuggling of firearms and components. This includes targeting high-risk routes and shipments, conducting searches, and utilising advanced detection technologies.
• International Cooperation: The NCA collaborates with law enforcement agencies in other countries, particularly in Eastern Europe and Turkey, to share intelligence, disrupt criminal networks, and trace the origin of illicit firearms.
• Disrupting Criminal Networks: The NCA conducts targeted investigations to dismantle criminal networks involved in the firearms trade, arresting key individuals, seizing weapons, and disrupting their financial operations.
• Digital Forensics & Cybercrime: The NCA increasingly focuses on exploiting digital forensics and combating cybercrime to identify and disrupt online firearms trafficking and the procurement of components.
• Financial Investigations: Following the money trail is crucial to understanding how criminal networks operate and to seize their assets. The NCA uses financial investigation techniques to identify and disrupt the financial flows associated with the illicit firearms trade.

V. Emerging Threats and Future Trends

Several emerging threats and trends are likely to shape the illicit firearms landscape in the UK in the coming years:

• 3D Printing & Home-Built Firearms: Advances in 3D printing technology are making it increasingly easier to manufacture firearms at home, bypassing traditional regulatory controls. While the quality and reliability of these weapons are currently limited, the technology is rapidly evolving, and the threat is likely to grow.
• The Dark Web & Online Marketplaces: The dark web and encrypted messaging apps are being used to facilitate the illicit trade in firearms and components. Law enforcement is working to counter this threat through online investigations and collaboration with technology companies.
• The Convergence of Criminal Activities: There is evidence of increasing convergence between different forms of criminal activity, such as drug trafficking, human trafficking, and firearms smuggling. This makes it more difficult for law enforcement to disrupt these networks.
• Exploitation of Illegal Migration: The continued influx of migrants crossing the English Channel in small boats presents a potential opportunity for opportunistic smuggling of firearms and components. Enhanced border security and screening measures are needed to mitigate this risk.
• Increased Availability of Semi-Automatic Weapons: While currently restricted, pressure to legalize certain semi-automatic weapons for sporting purposes could inadvertently increase their availability and create opportunities for diversion into the illicit market.
• Impact of Geopolitical Instability: Conflicts and instability in other parts of the world can lead to an increase in the availability of illicit firearms and a rise in cross-border trafficking.

VI. Conclusion

The illicit firearms trade in the UK remains a significant challenge, requiring a sustained and multi-faceted response. The NCA is playing a vital role in disrupting criminal networks, seizing weapons, and mitigating the risks. However, the threat is constantly evolving, driven by technological advancements, changing criminal dynamics, and geopolitical factors.

Effective mitigation requires continued investment in intelligence gathering, border security, international cooperation, and law enforcement capabilities. Proactive measures, such as the ‘Operation Sergeancy’ amnesty, demonstrate the value of collaborative approaches. Crucially, addressing the underlying drivers of crime – poverty, social exclusion, and drug addiction – is essential to reduce the demand for illegal firearms and create safer communities. The NCA, alongside its partners, must remain vigilant and adaptable to counter the evolving threat and protect the public from gun violence. Ongoing monitoring of OSINT and close collaboration with intelligence agencies will be critical in identifying and responding to emerging threats, particularly those linked to illegal migration and the potential for extremist groups to acquire weapons.